The Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics at Yale University has as its purpose the conduct and encouragement of research in economics. The Cowles Foundation seeks to foster the development and application of rigorous logical, mathematical, and statistical methods of analysis. Among its activities, the Cowles Foundation provides financial support for research, visiting faculty, postdoctoral fellowships, workshops, and graduate students. Cowles regularly sponsors conferences and publishes a working paper series, a reprint series, and monographs.

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Submissions from 2015

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Human Capital Development and Parental Investment in India, Orazio P. Attanasio, Costas Meghir, and Emily Nix

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Human Capital Development and Parental Investment in India, Orazio P. Attanasio, Costas Meghir, and Emily Nix

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Human Capital Development and Parental Investment in India, Orazio P. Attanasio, Costas Meghir, and Emily Nix

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Long Term Effects of Experience During Youth: Evidence From Consumptions in China, K. Sudhir and Ishani Tewari

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Long Term Effects of “Prosperity in Youth” on Consumption: Evidence from China, K. Sudhir and Ishani Tewari

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Optimal Product Variety in Radio Markets, Steven T. Berry, Alon Eizenberg, and Joel Waldfogel

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Premuneration Values and Investments in Matching Markets, George J. Mailath, Andrew Postlewaite, and Larry Samuelson

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Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth, William D. Nordhaus

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Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi‐Model Comparison, Kenneth Gillingham, William D. Nordhaus, David Anthoff, Geoffrey Blanford, Valentina Bosetti, Peter Christensen, and Haewon McJeon

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First Price Auctions with General Information Structures: Implications for Bidding and Revenue, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, and Stephen Morris

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Efficient Estimation of Multivariate Semi-nonparametric GARCH Filtered Copula Models, Xiaohong Chen, Zhuo Huang, and Yanping Yi

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First Price Auctions with General Information Structures: Implications for Bidding and Revenue, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, and Stephen Morris

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First Price Auctions with General Information Structures: Implications for Bidding and Revenue, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, and Stephen Morris

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First Price Auctions with General Information Structures: Implications for Bidding and Revenue, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, and Stephen Morris

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Identification in Differentiated Products Markets, Steven T. Berry and Philip A. Haile

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Information and Market Power, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, and Stephen Morris

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Information and Market Power, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, and Stephen Morris

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Introduction to JET Symposium Issue on ‘Dynamic Contracts and Mechanism Design, Dirk Bergemann and Alessandro Pavan

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Team Production, Endogenous Learning about Abilities and Career Concerns, Evangelia Chalioti

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An Analysis of Top Trading Cycles in Two-Sided Matching Markets, Yeon-Koo Che and Olivier Tercieux

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Efficiency and Stability in Large Matching Markets, Yeon-Koo Che and Olivier Tercieux

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Identification of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models with a Residual Index Structure, Steven T. Berry and Philip A. Haile

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Identification of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models with a Residual Index Structure, Steven T. Berry and Philip A. Haile

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Inference Based on Many Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xiaoxia Shi

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Inference Based on Many Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xiaoxia Shi

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Inference in Near Singular Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips

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Information Limits of Aggregate Data, Ray C. Fair

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Payoff Equivalence of Efficient Mechanisms in Large Matching Markets, Yeon-Koo Che and Olivier Tercieux

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Sieve Semiparametric Two-Step GMM under Weak Dependence, Xiaohong Chen and Zhipeng Liao

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Business Cycles, Trend Elimination, and the HP Filter, Peter C.B. Phillips and Sainan Jin

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Edmond Malinvaud: A Tribute to His Contributions in Econometrics, Peter C.B. Phillips

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Hot Property in New Zealand: Empirical Evidence of Housing Bubbles in the Metropolitan, Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Investment Horizons and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets, Shinichi Hirota, Juergen Huber, Thomas Stöckl, and Shyam Sunder

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Minimum Distance Testing and Top Income Shares in Korea, Jin Seo Cho, Myung-Ho Park, and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Pitfalls and Possibilities in Predictive Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips

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Testing Mean Stability of Heteroskedastic Time Series, Violetta Dalla, Liudas Giraitis, and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Optimal Design for Social Learning, Yeon-Koo Che and Johannes Hörner

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Overidentification in Regular Models, Xiaohong Chen and Andres Santos

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Overidentification in Regular Models, Xiaohong Chen and Andres Santos

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The Dynamics of Capital Accumulation in the US: Simulations after Piketty, Philippe De Donder and John E. Roemer

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The Dynamics of Capital Accumulation in the US: Simulations after Piketty, Philippe De Donder and John E. Roemer

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Innovation Adoption by Forward-Looking Social Learners, Mira Frick and Yuhta Ishii

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Buying Locally, George J. Mailath, Andrew Postlewaite, and Larry Samuelson

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Insurance in Extended Family Networks, Orazio P. Attanasio, Costas Meghir, and Corina Mommaerts

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Insurance in Extended Family Networks, Orazio P. Attanasio, Costas Meghir, and Corina Mommaerts

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Learning to Disagree in a Game of Experimentation, Alessandro Bonatti and Johannes Hörner

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Pundits and Quacks, Jesper Rudiger and Adrien Vigier

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Relational Contracts with Subjective Peer Evaluations, Joyee Deb, Jin Li, and Arijit Mukherjee

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The Implementation Duality, Georg Nöldeke and Larry Samuelson

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The Implementation Duality, Georg Nöldeke and Larry Samuelson

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The Implementation Duality, Georg Nöldeke and Larry Samuelson

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The Marriage Market, Labor Supply and Education Choice, Pierre-André Chiappori, Monica Costa Dias, and Costas Meghir

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The Marriage Market, Labor Supply and Education Choice, Pierre-André Chiappori, Monica Costa Dias, and Costas Meghir

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Dynamic Mechanisms without Money, Yingni Guo and Johannes Hörner

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Dynamic Moral Hazard without Commitment, Johannes Hörner and Larry Samuelson

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Estimating the Production Function for Human Capital: Results from a Randomized Control Trial in Colombia, Orazio P. Attanasio, Sarah Cattan, Emla Fitzsimons, Costas Meghir, and Marta Rubio-Codina

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Estimating the Production Function for Human Capital: Results from a Randomized Control Trial in Colombia, Orazio P. Attanasio, Sarah Cattan, Emla Fitzsimons, Costas Meghir, and Marta Rubio-Codina

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Estimating the Production Function for Human Capital: Results from a Randomized Control Trial in Colombia, Orazio P. Attanasio, Sarah Cattan, Emla Fitzsimons, Costas Meghir, and Marta Rubio-Codina

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Estimating the Production Function for Human Capital: Results from a Randomized Control Trial in Colombia, Sarah Cattan, Emla Fitzsimons, Costas Meghir, and Marta Rubio-Codina

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Innovation Adoption by Forward-Looking Social Learners, Mira Frick and Yuhta Ishii

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Money as Minimal Complexity, Pradeep Dubey, Siddhartha Sahi, and Martin Shubik

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Transparency and Distressed Sales under Asymmetric Information, William Fuchs and Andrzej Skrzypacz

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Unbiased Instrumental Variables Estimation under Known First-Stage Sign, Isaiah Andrews and Timothy B. Armstrong

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Unbiased Instrumental Variables Estimation under Known First-Stage Sign, Isaiah Andrews and Timothy B. Armstrong

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Unbiased Instrumental Variables Estimation under Known First-Stage Sign, Isaiah Andrews and Timothy B. Armstrong

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Unbiased Instrumental Variables Estimation under Known First-Stage Sign, Isaiah Andrews and Timothy B. Armstrong

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Unbiased Instrumental Variables Estimation under Known First-Stage Sign, Isaiah Andrews and Timothy B. Armstrong

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Unbiased Instrumental Variables Estimation under Known First-Stage Sign, Isaiah Andrews and Timothy B. Armstrong

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Identification- and Singularity-Robust Inference for Moment Condition Models, Donald W.K. Andrews and Patrik Guggenberger

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Medicaid as an Investment in Children: What is the Long-Term Impact on Tax Receipts?, David W. Brown, Amanda E. Kowalski, and Ithai Z. Lurie

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Nonlinear Pricing with Finite Information, Dirk Bergemann, Ji Shen, Yun Xu, and Edmund M. Yeh

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The ‘Peter Pan Syndrome’ in Emerging Markets: The Productivity-Transparency Tradeoff in IT Adoption, K. Sudhir and Debabrata Talukdar

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What Do Longitudinal Data on Millions of Hospital Visits Tell Us about the Value of Public Health Insurance as a Safety Net for the Young and Privately Insured?, Amanda E. Kowalski

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Why is Pollution from U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, and Trade, Joseph S. Shapiro and Reed Walker

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Why is Pollution from U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, and Trade, Joseph S. Shapiro and Reed Walker

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Why is Pollution from U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, and Trade, Joseph S. Shapiro and Reed Walker

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Why is Pollution from U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Trade, Regulation, Productivity, and Preferences, Joseph S. Shapiro and Reed Walker

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Why is Pollution from U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Trade, Regulation, Productivity, and Preferences, Joseph S. Shapiro and Reed Walker

Submissions from 2014

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A Multivariate Stochastic Unit Root Model with an Application to Derivative Pricing, Offer Lieberman and Peter C.B. Phillips

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A New Hedonic Regression for Real Estate Prices Applied to the Singapore Residential Market, Liang Jiang, Peter C.B. Phillips, and Jun Yu

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A Note on Minimax Testing and Confidence Intervals in Moment Inequality Models, Timothy B. Armstrong

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A Simple Adjustment for Bandwidth Snooping, Timothy B. Armstrong and Michal Kolesár

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A Simple Adjustment for Bandwidth Snooping, Timothy B. Armstrong and Michal Kolesár

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A Simple Adjustment for Bandwidth Snooping, Timothy B. Armstrong and Michal Kolesár

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A Simple Adjustment for Bandwidth Snooping, Timothy B. Armstrong and Michal Kolesár

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Asymptotic Size of Kleibergen's LM and Conditional LR Tests for Moment Condition Models, Donald W.K. Andrews and Patrik Guggenberger

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Dynamic Panel GMM with Near Unity, Peter C.B. Phillips

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Financial Bubble Implosion, Peter C.B. Phillips and Shu-Ping Shi

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Identifying Latent Structures in Panel Data, Liangjun Su, Zhentao Shi, and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Informational Robustness and Solution Concepts, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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Informational Robustness and Solution Concepts, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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Optimal Uniform Convergence Rates and Asymptotic Normality for Series Estimators under Weak Dependence and Weak Conditions, Xiaohong Chen and Timothy M. Christensen

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Restricted Likelihood Ratio Tests in Predictive Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips and Ye Chen

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Testing Equality of Covariance Matrices via Pythagorean Means, Jin Seo Cho and Peter C.B. Phillips

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The Double Role of Ethnic Heterogeneity in Explaining Welfare-State Generosity, Markus Jäntti, Gerald David Jaynes, and John E. Roemer

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Threshold Regression with Endogeneity, Ping Yu and Peter C.B. Phillips

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True Limit Distributions of the Anderson-Hsiao IV Estimators in Panel Autoregression, Peter C.B. Phillips and Chirok Han

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Weak Convergence to Stochastic Integrals for Econometric Applications, Hanying Liang, Peter C.B. Phillips, Hanchao Wang, and Qiying Wang

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Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving, Ray C. Fair

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On the Choice of Test Statistic for Conditional Moment Inequalities, Timothy B. Armstrong

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On the Choice of Test Statistic for Conditional Moment Inequalities, Timothy B. Armstrong

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On the Choice of Test Statistic for Conditional Moment Inequalities, Timothy B. Armstrong

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The Early Impact of the Affordable Care Act State-by-State, Amanda E. Kowalski

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Economics: Between Prediction and Criticism, Itzhak Gilboa, Andrew Postlewaite, Larry Samuelson, and David Schmeidler

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Adaptive Testing on a Regression Function at a Point, Timothy B. Armstrong

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Adaptive Testing on a Regression Function at a Point, Timothy B. Armstrong

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Approximate Solutions of the Walrasian Equilibrium Inequalities with Bounded Marginal Utilities of Income, Donald J. Brown

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Approximate Solutions of Walrasian and Gorman Polar Form Equilibrium Inequalities, Donald J. Brown

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Approximate Solutions of Walrasian Equilibrium Inequalities with Bounded Marginal Utilities of Income, Donald J. Brown

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Strongly Symmetric Equilibria in Bandit Games, Johannes Hörner, Nicolas Klein, and Sven Rady

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Discounting the Distant Future, J. Doyne Farmer, John Geanakoplos, Jaume Masoliver, and Miquel Montero

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Dynamic Revenue Maximization: A Continuous Time Approach, Dirk Bergemann and Philipp Strack

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Dynamic Revenue Maximization: A Continuous Time Approach, Dirk Bergemann and Philipp Strack

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Dynamic Revenue Maximization: A Continuous Time Approach, Dirk Bergemann and Philipp Strack

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Dynamic Revenue Maximization: A Continuous Time Approach, Dirk Bergemann and Philipp Strack

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Games with Money and Status: How Best to Incentivize Work, Pradeep Dubey and John Geanakoplos

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Money and Status: How Best to Incentivize Work, Pradeep Dubey and John Geanakoplos

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Selling Experiments: Menu Pricing of Information, Dirk Bergemann, Alessandro Bonatti, and Alex Smolin

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Changing Times, Changing Values: A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013, Oliver D. Bunn and Robert J. Shiller

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Intrahousehold Inequality, Costas Meghir

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Intra-household Welfare, Costas Meghir

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Simecs, Ithaca Hours, Berkshares, Bitcoins and Walmarts, Martin Shubik

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Investment and Competitive Matching, Georg Nöldeke and Larry Samuelson

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Minimally Complex Exchange Mechanisms: Emergence of Prices, Markets, and Money, Pradeep Dubey, Siddhartha Sahi, and Martin Shubik

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A Model of Multi-pass Search: Price Search across Stores and Time, Navid Mojir and K. Sudhir

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Computational Complexity of the Walrasian Equilibrium Inequalities, Donald J. Brown

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Do Sympathy Biases Induce Charitable Giving? The Effects of Advertising Content, K. Sudhir, Subroto Roy, and Mathew Cherian

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Exploiting the Choice-Consumption Mismatch: A New Approach to Disentangle State Dependence and Heterogeneity, K. Sudhir and Nathan Yang

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How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?, Ray C. Fair

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Price Search Across Stores and Across Time, Navid Mojir and K. Sudhir

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Price Search Across Time and Across Stores, Navid Mojir and K. Sudhir

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Specification Tests for Nonlinear Dynamic Models, Igor Kheifets

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The Financial Crisis and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008-2013, Ray C. Fair

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Varying the Money Supply of Commercial Banks, Martin Shubik and Eric Smith

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Speculative Asset Prices, Robert J. Shiller

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Gaming and Strategic Opacity in Incentive Provision, Florian Ederer, Richard Holden, and Margaret Meyer

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Why Is Housing Finance Still Stuck in Such a Primitive Stage?, Robert J. Shiller

Submissions from 2013

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Emissions, Humberto Llavador, John E. Roemer, and Joaquim Silvestre

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Information and Volatility, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, and Stephen Morris

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Information and Volatility, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, and Stephen Morris

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Information, Interdependence, and Interaction: Where Does the Volatility Come From?, Dirk Bergemann, Tibor Heumann, and Stephen Morris

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Promises and Expectations, Florian Ederer and Alexander Stremitzer

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Promises and Expectations, Florian Ederer and Alexander Stremitzer

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Truthful Equilibria in Dynamic Bayesian Games, Johannes Hörner, Satoru Takahashi, and Nicolas Vieille

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Truthful Equilibria in Dynamic Bayesian Games, Johannes Hörner, Satoru Takahashi, and Nicolas Vieille

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Uncertain Growth and the Value of the Future, Jaume Masoliver, Miquel Montero, John Geanakoplos, and J. Doyne Farmer

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Uniform Consistency of Nonstationary Kernel-Weighted Sample Covariances for Nonparametric Regression, Degui Li, Peter C.B. Phillips, and Jiti Gao

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Extremal Information Structures in the First Price Auction, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, and Stephen Morris

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Fairness through the Lens of Cooperative Game Theory: An Experimental Approach, Geoffroy de Clippel and Kareen Rozen

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Inference on Optimal Treatment Assignments, Timothy B. Armstrong and Shu Shen

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Inference on Optimal Treatment Assignments, Timothy B. Armstrong and Shu Shen

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Inference on Optimal Treatment Assignments, Timothy B. Armstrong and Shu Shen

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New Goodness-of-fit Diagnostics for Conditional Discrete Response Models, Igor Kheifets and Carlos Velasco

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New Goodness-of-fit Diagnostics for Conditional Discrete Response Models, Igor Kheifets and Carlos Velasco

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Optimal Sup-norm Rates, Adaptivity and Inference in Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Estimation, Xiaohong Chen and Timothy M. Christensen

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Optimal Uniform Convergence Rates for Sieve Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Regression, Xiaohong Chen and Timothy M. Christensen

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Barefoot and Footloose Doctors: Optimal Resource Allocation in Developing Countries with Medical Migration, John E. Roemer and Pedro Rosa Dias

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Equality of Opportunity, John E. Roemer and Alain Trannoy

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Model Selection in the Presence of Incidental Parameters, Yoonseok Lee and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Selling Cookies, Dirk Bergemann and Alessandro Bonatti

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Selling Cookies, Dirk Bergemann and Alessandro Bonatti

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Selling Cookies, Dirk Bergemann and Alessandro Bonatti

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Bayes Correlated Equilibrium and the Comparison of Information Structures in Games, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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Correlated Equilibrium and the Comparison of Information Structures in Games, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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Estimating Smooth Structural Change in Cointegration Models, Jiti Gao, Degui Li, and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Functional Coefficient Nonstationary Regression, Jiti Gao and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Norming Rates and Limit Theory for Some Time-Varying Coefficient Autoregressions, Offer Lieberman and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling, Ray C. Fair

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Reviewing the Leverage Cycle, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S&P 500, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, and Jun Yu

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Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory of Real Time Detectors, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, and Jun Yu

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Testing Linearity Using Power Transforms of Regressors, Yae In Baek, Jin Seo Cho, and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Testing the Martingale Hypothesis, Peter C.B. Phillips and Sainan Jin

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The Comparison of Information Structures in Games: Bayes Correlated Equilibrium and Individual Sufficiency, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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The Comparison of Information Structures in Games: Bayes Correlated Equilibrium and Individual Sufficiency, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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The Evolution of ‘Theory of Mind:’ Theory and Experiments, Erik O. Kimbrough, Nikolaus Robalino, and Arthur Robson

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The Evolution of ‘Theory of Mind’: Theory and Experiments, Erik O. Kimbrough, Nikolaus Robalino, and Arthur Robson

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Unit Roots in Life — A Graduate Student Story, Peter C.B. Phillips

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Afriat from MaxMin, John Geanakoplos

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Collateral Equilibrium: A Basic Framework, John Geanakoplos and William R. Zame

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Identification and Estimation in Two-Sided Matching Markets, Nikhil Agarwal and William Diamond

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Optimal Sup-Norm Rates and Uniform Inference on Nonlinear Functionals of Nonparametric IV Regression, Xiaohong Chen and Timothy M. Christensen

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Competing for Consumer Inattention, Geoffroy de Clippel, Kfir Eliaz, and Kareen Rozen

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Financial Innovation, Collateral and Investment, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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Financial Innovation, Collateral and Investment, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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Nonparametric Analysis of Random Utility Models: Testing, Yuichi Kitamura and Jörg Stoye

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Sequential Information Disclosure in Auctions, Dirk Bergemann and Achim Wambach

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Sequential Information Disclosure in Auctions, Dirk Bergemann and Achim Wambach

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Adverse Selection and an Individual Mandate: When Theory Meets Practice, Martin B. Hackmann, Jonathan T. Kolstad, and Amanda E. Kowalski

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Affective Utilities: A Rational Theory of Optimistic Bias in Asset Markets, Anat Bracha and Donald J. Brown

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(Ir)Rational Exuberance: Optimism, Ambiguity and Risk, Anat Bracha and Donald J. Brown

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Likelihood Inference in Some Finite Mixture Models, Xiaohong Chen, Maria Ponomareva, and Elie Tamer

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Reflections on Finance and the Good Society, Robert J. Shiller

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Sieve Quasi Likelihood Ratio Inference on Semi/nonparametric Conditional Moment Models, Xiaohong Chen and Demian Pouzo

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Sieve Wald and QLR Inferences on Semi/nonparametric Conditional Moment Models, Xiaohong Chen and Demian Pouzo

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Sieve Wald and QLR Inferences on Semi/nonparametric Conditional Moment Models, Xiaohong Chen and Demian Pouzo

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The Limits of Price Discrimination, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, and Stephen Morris

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The Limits of Price Discrimination, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, and Stephen Morris

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The Limits of Price Discrimination, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, and Stephen Morris

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The Limits of Price Discrimination, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, and Stephen Morris

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Biology and the Arguments of Utility, Luis Rayo and Arthur Robson

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Biology and the Arguments of Utility, Luis Rayo and Arthur Robson

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Female Labour Supply, Human Capital and Welfare Reform, Richard Blundell, Monica Costa Dias, Costas Meghir, and Jonathan Shaw

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Female Labour Supply, Human Capital and Welfare Reform, Richard Blundell, Monica Costa Dias, Costas Meghir, and Jonathan Shaw

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Female Labour Supply, Human Capital and Welfare Reform, Richard Blundell, Monica Costa Dias, Costas Meghir, and Jonathan Shaw

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Keynesian Utilities: Bulls and Bears, Anat Bracha and Donald J. Brown

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Fictive Learning in Choice under Uncertainty: A Logistic Regression Model, Donald J. Brown, Oliver D. Bunn, and Caterina Calsamiglia

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Testing for Fictive Learning in Decision-Making under Uncertainty, Oliver D. Bunn, Caterina Calsamiglia, and Donald J. Brown

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Career Progression, Economic Downturns, and Skills, Jerome Adda, Christian Dustmann, Costas Meghir, and Jean-Marc Robin

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Education Policy and Intergenerational Transfers in Equilibrium, Brant Abbott, Giovanni Gallipoli, Costas Meghir, and Giovanni L. Violante

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Education Policy and Intergenerational Transfers in Equilibrium, Brant Abbott, Giovanni Gallipoli, Costas Meghir, and Giovanni L. Violante

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Education Policy and Intergenerational Transfers in Equilibrium, Brant Abbott, Giovanni Gallipoli, Costas Meghir, and Giovanni L. Violante

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Relational Contracting, Repeated Negotiations, and Hold-Up, Sebastian Kranz

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Mismatch, Sorting and Wage Dynamics, Jeremy Lise, Costas Meghir, and Jean-Marc Robin

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Multiscale Adaptive Inference on Conditional Moment Inequalities, Timothy B. Armstrong and Hock Peng Chan

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Multiscale Adaptive Inference on Conditional Moment Inequalities, Timothy B. Armstrong and Hock Peng Chan

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Multiscale Adaptive Inference on Conditional Moment Inequalities, Timothy B. Armstrong and Hock Peng Chan

Submissions from 2012

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An Estimation of Economic Models with Recursive Preferences, Xiaohong Chen, Jack Favilukis, and Sydney C. Ludvigson

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Cost Innovation: Schumpeter and Equilibrium. Part 2: Innovation and the Money Supply, Martin Shubik and William D. Sudderth

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Mathematical Institutional Economics, Martin Shubik

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Wealth Effects Revisited 1975-2012, Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, and Robert J. Shiller

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Asymptotic Efficiency of Semiparametric Two-step GMM, Xiaohong Chen, Jinyong Hahn, and Zhipeng Liao

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What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets, Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller, and Anne K. Thompson

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Automated Estimation of Vector Error Correction Models, Zhipeng Liao and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Endogenous Leverage in a Binomial Economy: The Irrelevance of Actual Default, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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Leverage and Default in Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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Leverage and Default in Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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Leverage and Default in Binomial Economies: A Complete Characterization, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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Non-linearity Induced Weak Instrumentation, Ioannis Kasparis, Peter C.B. Phillips, and Tassos Magdalinos

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Nonparametric Predictive Regression, Ioannis Kasparis, Elena Andreou, and Peter C.B. Phillips

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On Confidence Intervals for Autoregressive Roots and Predictive Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips

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Series Estimation of Stochastic Processes: Recent Developments and Econometric Applications, Peter C.B. Phillips and Zhipeng Liao

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The Strategic Impact of Higher-Order Beliefs, Yi-Chun Chen, Alfredo Di Tillio, Eduardo Faingold, and Siyang Xiong

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Wages and Informality in Developing Countries, Costas Meghir, Renata Narita, and Jean-Marc Robin

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What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets — A 2014 Update, Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller, and Anne K. Thompson

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Matching with Incomplete Information, Quingmin Liu, George J. Mailath, Andrew Postlewaite, and Larry Samuelson

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Runs, Panics and Bubbles: Diamond-Dybvig and Morris-Shin Reconsidered, Eric Smith and Martin Shubik

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Decoupling Markets and Individuals: Rational Expectations Equilibrium Outcomes from Information Dissemination among Boundedly-Rational Traders, Karim Jamal, Michael Maier, and Shyam Sunder

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Notes on Computational Complexity of GE Inequalities, Donald J. Brown

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Notes on Computational Complexity of GE Inequalities, Donald J. Brown

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Simple Agents, Intelligent Markets, Karim Jamal, Michael Maier, and Shyam Sunder

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The Anatomy of French Production Hierarchies, Lorenzo Caliendo, Ferdinando Monte, and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

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What Is a Solution to a Matrix Game, Martin Shubik

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What Is a Solution to a Matrix Game, Martin Shubik

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How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty?, Ray C. Fair

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The Financing of a Public Utility, Eric Smith and Martin Shubik

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A Web Gaming Facility for Research and Teaching, Martin Shubik

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A Web Gaming Facility for Research and Teaching, Martin Shubik

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Competing for Customers in a Social Network (R), Pradeep Dubey, Rahul Garg, and Bernard De Meyer

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Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?, Ray C. Fair

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Multi-dimensional Mechanism Design with Limited Information, Dirk Bergemann, Ji Shen, Yun Xu, and Edmund M. Yeh

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The Allocation of a Prize (R), Pradeep Dubey and Siddhartha Sahi

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Bounded Rationality and Limited Datasets: Testable Implications, Identification, and Out-of-Sample Prediction, Geoffroy de Clippel and Kareen Rozen

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Does Reducing Spatial Differentiation Increase Product Differentiation? Effects of Zoning on Retail Entry and Format Variety, Sumon Datta and K. Sudhir

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Getting at Systemic Risk via an Agent-Based Model of the Housing Market, John Geanakoplos, Robert Axtell, J. Doyne Farmer, Peter Howitt, Benjamin Conlee, Jonathan Goldstein, and Matthew Hendrey

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Improved Estimates of Using Luminosity as a Proxy for Economic Statistics: New Results and Estimates of Precision, William D. Nordhaus and Xi Chen

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Kantian Optimization: An Approach to Cooperative Behavior, John E. Roemer

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Kantian Optimization, Social Ethos, and Pareto Efficiency, John E. Roemer

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Mandate-Based Health Reform and the Labor Market: Evidence from the Massachusetts Reform, Jonathan T. Kolstad and Amanda E. Kowalski

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Short Run Needs and Long Term Goals: A Dynamic Model of Thirst Management, Guofang Huang, Ahmed Khwaja, and K. Sudhir

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Demand Externalities from Co-Location, Boudhayan Sen, Jiwoong Shin, and K. Sudhir

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On the Limit Equilibrium Payoff Set in Repeated and Stochastic Games, Johannes Hörner, Satoru Takahashi, and Nicolas Vieille

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Sieve Inference on Semi-nonparametric Time Series Models, Xiaohong Chen, Zhipeng Liao, and Yixiao Sun

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Discounted Stochastic Games with Voluntary Transfers, Sebastian Kranz

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Efficient Auctions and Interdependent Types, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, and Satoru Takahashi

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Health Reform, Health Insurance, and Selection: Estimating Selection into Health Insurance Using the Massachusetts Health Reform, Martin B. Hackmann, Jonathan T. Kolstad, and Amanda E. Kowalski

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Lag Length Selection for Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Nonstationary Volatility, Giuseppe Cavaliere, Peter C.B. Phillips, Stephan Smeekes, and A. M. Rober Taylor

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Specification Sensitivity in Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing for Explosive Behavior, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, and Jun Yu

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Testing for Multiple Bubbles, Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, and Jun Yu

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VARs with Mixed Roots Near Unity, Peter C.B. Phillips and Ji Hyung Lee

Submissions from 2011

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Integrated Economic and Climate Modeling, William D. Nordhaus

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Nonparametric Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xiaoxia Shi

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Nonparametric Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xiaoxia Shi

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Nonparametric Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xiaoxia Shi

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Greek Debt and American Debt: Graduation Speech at the University of Athens Economics and Business School, John Geanakoplos

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Monitoring Leverage, John Geanakoplos and Lasse H. Pedersen

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Pricing under the Threat of Piracy: Flexibility and Platforms for Digital Goods, Dirk Bergemann, Thomas Eisenbach, Joan Feigenbaum, and Scott Shenker

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Prizes versus Wages with Envy and Pride, Pradeep Dubey, John Geanakoplos, and Ori Haimanko

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Sensitivity Analysis in Semiparametric Likelihood Models, Xiaohong Chen, Elie Tamer, and Alexander Torgovitsky

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A Theory of Asset Prices Based on Heterogeneous Information, Elias Albagli, Christian Hellwig, and Aleh Tsyvinski

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Bayes Correlated Equilibrium and the Comparison of Information Structures, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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Career Concerns and Market Structure, Alessandro Bonatti and Johannes Hörner

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Career Concerns with Coarse Information, Alessandro Bonatti and Johannes Hörner

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Correlated Equilibrium in Games with Incomplete Information, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Background and Results from the RICE-2011 Model, William D. Nordhaus

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Financing of Public Goods through Taxation in a General Equilibrium Economy: Experimental Evidence, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, and Shyam Sunder

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Financing of Public Goods through Taxation in a General Equilibrium Economy: Theory and Experimental Evidence, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, and Shyam Sunder

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GMM Estimation and Uniform Subvector Inference with Possible Identification Failure, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xu Cheng

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GMM Estimation and Uniform Subvector Inference with Possible Identification Failure, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xu Cheng

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Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Uniform Inference with Sporadic Identification Failure, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xu Cheng

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Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Uniform Inference with Sporadic Identification Failure, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xu Cheng

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Meritocracy Voting: Measuring the Unmeasurable, Peter C.B. Phillips

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On Bartlett Correctability of Empirical Likelihood in Generalized Power Divergence Family, Lorenzo Camponovo and Taisuke Otsu

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Optimally Empty Promises and Endogenous Supervision, David A. Miller and Kareen Rozen

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Optimism and Pessimism with Expected Utility, David Dillenberger, Andrew Postlewaite, and Kareen Rozen

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Public Goods through Taxation in a General Equilibrium Economy: Experimental Evidence, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, and Shyam Sunder

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Testing for Common Trends in Semiparametric Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects, Yonghui Zhang, Liangjun Su, and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Robust Predictions in Games with Incomplete Information, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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Robust Predictions in Games with Incomplete Information, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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Robust Predictions in Games with Incomplete Information, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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Robust Predictions in Games with Incomplete Information, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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A Conditional-Heteroskedasticity-Robust Confidence Interval for the Autoregressive Parameter, Donald W.K. Andrews and Patrik Guggenberger

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A Conditional-Heteroskedasticity-Robust Confidence Interval for the Autoregressive Parameter, Donald W.K. Andrews and Patrik Guggenberger

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Generic Results for Establishing the Asymptotic Size of Confidence Sets and Tests, Donald W.K. Andrews, Xu Cheng, and Patrik Guggenberger

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Information Aggregation, Investment, and Managerial Incentives, Elias Albagli, Christian Hellwig, and Aleh Tsyvinski

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Irving Fisher, Debt Deflation and Crises, Robert J. Shiller

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Risky Curves: From Unobservable Utility to Observable Opportunity Sets, Daniel Friedman and Shyam Sunder

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Robust Mechanism Design: An Introduction, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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Similar-on-the-Boundary Tests for Moment Inequalities Exist, But Have Poor Power, Donald W.K. Andrews

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Similar-on-the-Boundary Tests for Moment Inequalities Exist, But Have Poor Power, Donald W.K. Andrews

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The Demonetization of Gold: Transactions and the Change in Control, Thomas Quint and Martin Shubik

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The Effect of Language on Economic Behavior: Evidence from Savings Rates, Health Behaviors, and Retirement Assets, Keith M. Chen

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Dynamics of Inductive Inference in a Unified Framework, Itzhak Gilboa, Larry Samuelson, and David Schmeidler

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Pricing and Investments in Matching Markets, George J. Mailath, Andrew Postlewaite, and Larry Samuelson

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The Present and Future of Game Theory, Martin Shubik

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Tranching, CDS and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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Tranching, CDS and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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What It Takes to Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem, Ray C. Fair

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“Connected Substitutes and Invertibility of Demand, Steven T. Berry, Amit Gandhi, and Philip A. Haile

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Connected Substitutes and Invertibility of Demand, Steven T. Berry, Amit Gandhi, and Philip A. Haile

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Mean-Dispersion Preferences and Constant Absolute Uncertainty Aversion, Simon Grant and Ben Polak

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A Practical Asymptotic Variance Estimator for Two-Step Semiparametric Estimators, Daniel Ackerberg, Xiaohong Chen, and Jinyong Hahn

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Dynamic Strategic Information Transmission, Mikhail Golosov, Vasiliki Skreta, Aleh Tsyvinski, and Andrea Wilson

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Empirical Likelihood for Regression Discontinuity Design, Taisuke Otsu and Ke-Li Xu

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Endogenous Leverage: VaR and Beyond, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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Examples of L 2 -Complete and Boundedly-Complete Distributions, Donald W.K. Andrews

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Large Deviations of Realized Volatility, Shin Kanaya and Taisuke Otsu

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Penalized Sieve Estimation and Inference of Semi-Nonparametric Dynamic Models: A Selective Review, Xiaohong Chen

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Breakdown Point Theory for Implied Probability Bootstrap, Lorenzo Camponovo and Taisuke Otsu

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Continuous Workout Mortgages, Robert J. Shiller, Rafal M. Wojakowski, M. Shahid Ebrahim, and Mark B. Shackleton

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Empirical Likelihood for Nonparametric Additive Models, Taisuke Otsu

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Local Identification of Nonparametric and Semiparametric Models, Xiaohong Chen, Victor Chernozhukov, Sokbae Lee, and Whitney Newey

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Local Identification of Nonparametric and Semiparametric Models, Xiaohong Chen, Victor Chernozhukov, Sokbae Lee, and Whitney Newey

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Quantile Regression with Censoring and Endogeneity, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Fernández-Val, and Amanda E. Kowalski

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Robustness of Bootstrap in Instrumental Variable Regression, Lorenzo Camponovo and Taisuke Otsu

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Second-order Refinement of Empirical Likelihood for Testing Overidentifying Restrictions, Yukitoshi Matsushita and Taisuke Otsu

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A Simple Test for Identification in GMM under Conditional Moment Restrictions, Francesco Bravo, Juan Carlos Escanciano, and Taisuke Otsu

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Cost Innovation: Schumpeter and Equilibrium. Part 1. Robinson Crusoe, Martin Shubik and William D. Sudderth

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Economists as Worldly Philosophers, Robert J. Shiller and Virginia M. Shiller

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Hodges-Lehmann Optimality for Testing Moment Conditions, Ivan Canay and Taisuke Otsu

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Identification- and Singularity-Robust Inference for Moment Condition Models, Donald W.K. Andrews and Patrik Guggenberger

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Identification- and Singularity-Robust Inference for Moment Condition Models, Donald W.K. Andrews and Patrik Guggenberger

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Identification in a Class of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models, Steven T. Berry and Philip A. Haile

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Identification in a Class of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models, Steven T. Berry and Philip A. Haile

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Identification in a Class of Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models, Steven T. Berry and Philip A. Haile

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Large Deviations of Generalized Method of Moments and Empirical Likelihood Estimators, Taisuke Otsu

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Moderate Deviations of Generalized Method of Moments and Empirical Likelihood Estimators, Taisuke Otsu

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Wealth Effects Revisited, 1978-2009, Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, and Robert J. Shiller

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A World Macro Saving Fact and an Explanation, Ray C. Fair

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Bias in Estimating Multivariate and Univariate Diffusions, Xiaohu Wang, Peter C.B. Phillips, and Jun Yu

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Efficient Search by Committee, Dirk Bergemann and Juuso Välimäki

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First Difference MLE and Dynamic Panel Estimation, Chirok Han and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Folklore Theorems, Implicit Maps and New Unit Root Limit Theory, Peter C.B. Phillips

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Inconsistent VAR Regression with Common Explosive Roots, Peter C.B. Phillips and Tassos Magdalinos

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Specification Testing for Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression, Qiying Wang and Peter C.B. Phillips

Submissions from 2010

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Mechanism Design with Limited Information: The Case of Nonlinear Pricing, Dirk Bergemann, Ji Shen, Yun Xu, and Edmund M. Yeh

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Revealed Preferences for Risk and Ambiguity, Donald J. Brown, Chandra Erdman, Kirsten Ling, and Laurie Santos

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Estimation and Inference with Weak, Semi-strong, and Strong Identification, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xu Cheng

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Interdependent Preferences and Strategic Distinguishability, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, and Satoru Takahashi

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Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles during the Subprime Crisis, Peter C.B. Phillips and Jun Yu

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Identifying Finite Mixtures in Econometric Models, Marc Henry, Yuichi Kitamura, and Bernard Salanié

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Interdependent Preferences and Strategic Distinguishability, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, and Satoru Takahashi

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Interdependent Preferences and Strategic Distinguishability, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, and Satoru Takahashi

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Interdependent Preferences and Strategic Distinguishability, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, and Satoru Takahashi

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Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression under Weak Identification, Xiaoxia Shi and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Semiparametric Estimation in Time Series of Simultaneous Equations, Jiti Gao and Peter C.B. Phillips

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The Mysteries of Trend, Peter C.B. Phillips

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History-Disappointment Risk Attitude, David Dillenberger and Kareen Rozen

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Mediation and Peace, Johannes Hörner, Massimo Morelli, and Francesco Squintani

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Should Auctions be Transparent?, Dirk Bergemann and Johannes Hörner

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Should Auctions be Transparent?, Dirk Bergemann and Johannes Hörner

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Should Auctions be Transparent?, Dirk Bergemann and Johannes Hörner

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The Value of Luminosity Data as a Proxy for Economic Statistics, Xi Chen and William D. Nordhaus

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Why does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?, Ana Fostel and John Geanakoplos

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Estimation and Inference with Weak, Semi-strong, and Strong Identification, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xu Cheng

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Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xiaoxia Shi

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Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xiaoxia Shi

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Inference Based on Conditional Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews and Xiaoxia Shi

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The Role of Commitment in Bilateral Trade, Dino Gerardi, Johannes Hörner, and Lucas Maestri

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Affective Decision-Making: A Theory of Optimism-Bias, Anat Bracha and Donald J. Brown

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Dynamic Auctions: A Survey, Dirk Bergemann and Maher Said

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Dynamic Auctions: A Survey, Dirk Bergemann and Maher Said

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Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation, Ray C. Fair

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Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill, Ray C. Fair

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Targeting in Advertising Markets: Implications for Offline vs. Online Media, Dirk Bergemann and Alessandro Bonatti

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Targeting in Advertising Markets: Implications for Offline vs. Online Media, Dirk Bergemann and Alessandro Bonatti

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The Role of Commitment in Bilateral Trade, Dino Gerardi, Johannes Hörner, and Lucas Maestri

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Introduction to Judgment Aggregation, Christian List and Ben Polak

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Stochastic Search Equilibrium, Giuseppe Moscarini and Fabien Postel-Vinay

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Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data, Steven T. Berry and Philip A. Haile

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Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data, Steven T. Berry and Philip A. Haile

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Leverage Causes Fat Tails and Clustered Volatility, Stefan Thurner, J. Doyne Farmer, and John Geanakoplos

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Leverage Causes Fat Tails and Clustered Volatility, Stefan Thurner, J. Doyne Farmer, and John Geanakoplos

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Optimal Estimation under Nonstandard Conditions, Werner Ploberger and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Power Maximization and Size Control in Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Robust Tests with Exponentiated Kernels, Yixiao Sun, Peter C.B. Phillips, and Sainan Jin

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Pricing in Matching Markets, George J. Mailath, Andrew Postlewaite, and Larry Samuelson

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Solving the Present Crisis and Managing the Leverage Cycle, John Geanakoplos

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Two New Zealand Pioneer Econometricians, Peter C.B. Phillips

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Uniform Asymptotic Normality in Stationary and Unit Root Autoregression, Chirok Han, Peter C.B. Phillips, and Donggyu Sul

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X-Differencing and Dynamic Panel Model Estimation, Chirok Han, Peter C.B. Phillips, and Donggyu Sul

Submissions from 2009

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A Specification Test for Instrumental Variables Regression with Many Instruments, Yoonseok Lee and Ryo Okui

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Recursive Methods in Discounted Stochastic Games: An Algorithm for Delta Approaching 1 and a Folk Theorem, Johannes Hörner, Takuo Sugaya, Satoru Takahashi, and Nicolas Vieille

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Selling Information, Johannes Hörner and Andrzej Skrzypacz

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Selling Information, Johannes Hörner and Andrzej Skrzypacz

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Selling Information, Johannes Hörner and Andrzej Skrzypacz

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Belief-free Equilibria in Games with Incomplete Information: Characterization and Existence, Johannes Hörner, Stefano Lovo, and Tristan Tomala

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Biased Social Learning, Helios Herrera and Johannes Hörner

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Nonparametric Tests of Conditional Treatment Effects, Sokbae Lee and Yoon-Jae Whang

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On a Markov Game with One-Sided Incomplete Information, Johannes Hörner, Dinah Rosenberg, Eilon Solan, and Nicolas Vieille

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Breach, Remedies and Dispute Settlement in Trade Agreements, Giovanni Maggi and Robert W. Staiger

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Default Penalty as a Disciplinary and Selection Mechanism in Presence of Multiple Equilibria, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, and Shyam Sunder

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Default Penalty as a Selection Mechanism among Multiple Equilibria, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, and Shyam Sunder

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Default Penalty as a Selection Mechanism among Multiple Equilibria, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, and Shyam Sunder

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El Farol Revisited: A Note on Emergence, Game Theory and Society, Martin Shubik

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Identification of a Heterogeneous Generalized Regression Model with Group Effects, Steven T. Berry and Philip A. Haile

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Semiparametric Efficiency Bound for Models of Sequential Moment Restrictions Containing Unknown Functions, Chunrong Ai and Xiaohong Chen

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Strategic Supply Function Competition with Private Information, Xavier Vives

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Uniform Topologies on Types, Yi-Chun Chen, Alfredo Di Tillio, Eduardo Faingold, and Siyang Xiong

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Has Macro Progressed?, Ray C. Fair

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Incentives for Experimenting Agents, Johannes Hörner and Larry Samuelson

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Incentives for Experimenting Agents, Johannes Hörner and Larry Samuelson

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Incentives for Experimenting Agents, Johannes Hörner and Larry Samuelson

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Incentives for Experimenting Agents, Johannes Hörner and Larry Samuelson

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Marshallian Money, Welfare, and Side-Payments, Cheng-Zhong Qin, Lloyd S. Shapley, and Martin Shubik

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Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits, Ray C. Fair

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Hyperbolic Discounting Is Rational: Valuing the Far Future with Uncertain Discount Rates, J. Doyne Farmer and John Geanakoplos

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Nonparametric Estimation in Random Coefficients Binary Choice Models, Eric Gautier and Yuichi Kitamura

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Nonparametric Identification of Multinomial Choice Demand Models with Heterogeneous Consumers, Steven T. Berry and Philip A. Haile

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On the Asymptotic Optimality of Empirical Likelihood for Testing Moment Restrictions, Yuichi Kitamura, Andres Santos, and Azeem M. Shaikh

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Optimal Comparison of Misspecified Moment Restriction Models under a Chosen Measure of Fit, Vadim Marmer and Taisuke Otsu

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Robustness, Infinitesimal Neighborhoods, and Moment Restrictions, Yuichi Kitamura, Taisuke Otsu, and Kirill Evdokomov

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Soft Budgets and Renegotiations in Public-Private Partnerships, Eduardo Engel, Ronald Fischer, and Alexander Galetovic

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Subjectivity in Inductive Inference, Itzhak Gilboa and Larry Samuelson

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The Case for Trills: Giving the People and Their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation, Mark Kamstra and Robert J. Shiller

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Alternative Policies and Sea-Level Rise in the RICE-2009 Model, William D. Nordhaus

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An Improved Bootstrap Test of Stochastic Dominance, Oliver B. Linton, Kyungchul Song, and Yoon-Jae Whang

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Credit Cards and Inflation, John Geanakoplos and Pradeep Dubey

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Grading Exams: 100, 99, 98,...or A, B, C?, Pradeep Dubey and John Geanakoplos

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Market Valuation of Accrued Social Security Benefits, John Geanakoplos and Stephen P. Zeldes

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Nonparametric Estimation of a Polarization Measure, Gordon J. Anderson, Oliver B. Linton, and Yoon-Jae Whang

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Selecting a Unique Competitive Equilibrium with Default Penalties, Cheng-Zhong Qin and Martin Shubik

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The Leverage Cycle, John Geanakoplos

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The Leverage Cycle, John Geanakoplos

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Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability, Ray C. Fair

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A Paradox of Inconsistent Parametric and Consistent Nonparametric Regression, Peter C.B. Phillips and Liangjun Su

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Dynamic Misspecification in Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression, Ioannis Kasparis and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C.B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, and Jun Yu

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Infinite Density at the Median and the Typical Shape of Stock Return Distributions, Chirok Han, Jin Seo Cho, and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Inflationary Equilibrium in a Stochastic Economy with Independent Agents, John Geanakoplos, Ioannis Karatzas, Martin Shubik, and William D. Sudderth

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LAD Asymptotics under Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Possibly Infinite Error Densities, Jin Seo Cho, Chirok Han, and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Measurement of Income with Time Use with Applications to Hedonic Indicators of Happiness and Misery, William D. Nordhaus

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Monitoring with Collective Memory: Forgiveness for Optimally Empty Promises, David A. Miller and Kareen Rozen

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Nonparametric Structural Estimation via Continuous Location Shifts in an Endogenous Regressor, Peter C.B. Phillips and Liangjun Su

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The Effects of the Security Environment on Military Expenditures: Pooled Analyses of 165 Countries, 1950-2000, William D. Nordhaus, John R. Oneal, and Bruce Russett

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Rationalizable Implementation, Dirk Bergemann and Stephen Morris

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Rationalizable Implementation, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris, and Olivier Tercieux

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Collaborating, Alessandro Bonatti and Johannes Hörner

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Intergenerational Justice when Future Worlds Are Uncertain, Humberto Llavador, John E. Roemer, and Joaquim Silvestre

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Principal Components and Long Run Implications of Multivariate Diffusions, Xiaohong Chen, Lars P. Hansen, and José Scheinkman

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The Ethics of Distribution in a Warming Planet, John E. Roemer

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Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets, John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, and Luis M. Viceira

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An Analysis of the Dismal Theorem, William D. Nordhaus

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Asymptotic Theory for Zero Energy Density Estimation with Nonparametric Regression Applications, Qiying Wang and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Bootstrapping I(1) Data, Peter C.B. Phillips

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Cointegrating Rank Selection in Models with Time-Varying Variance, Xu Cheng and Peter C.B. Phillips

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Efficient Estimation of Copula-based Semiparametric Markov Models, Xiaohong Chen, Wei Biao Wu, and Yanping Yi

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Mean and Autocovariance Function Estimation Near the Boundary of Stationarity, Liudas Giraitis and Peter C.B. Phillips

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The Perils of the Learning Model For Modeling Endogenous Technological Change, William D. Nordhaus

Submissions from 2008

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Estimation and Model Selection of Semiparametric Multivariate Survival Functions under General Censorship, Xiaohong Chen, Yanqin Fan, Demian Pouzo, and Zhiliang Ying

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Managing Strategic Buyers, Johannes Hörner and Larry Samuelson

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Managing Strategic Buyers, Johannes Hörner and Larry Samuelson

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Venture Capital and Sequential Investments, Dirk Bergemann, Ulrich Hege, and Liang Peng

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Venture Capital and Sequential Investments, Dirk Bergemann, Ulrich Hege, and Liang Peng

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Venture Capital and Sequential Investments, Dirk Bergemann, Ulrich Hege, and Liang Peng

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A Principal-Agent Model of Sequential Testing, Dino Gerardi and Lucas Maestri

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Asymptotic Equivalence of Probabilistic Serial and Random Priority Mechanisms, Yeon-Koo Che and Fuhito Kojima

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Copula-Based Nonlinear Quantile Autoregression, Xiaohong Chen, Roger Koenker, and Zhijie Xiao

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The Evolution of Decision and Experienced Utilities, Arthur Robson and Larry Samuelson

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Financial Control of a Competitive Economy without Randomness, Ioannis Karatzas, Martin Shubik, and William D. Sudderth

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Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities: A Recommended Moment Selection Procedure, Donald W.K. Andrews and Panle Jai Barwick

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Inference for Parameters Defined by Moment Inequalities: A Recommended Moment Selection Procedure, Donald W.K. Andrews and Panle Jai Barwick

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Innovation and Equilibrium?, Martin Shubik

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Sufficiency of an Outside Bank and a Default Penalty to Support the Value of Fiat Money: Experimental Evidence, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, and Shyam Sunder

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Sufficiency of an Outside Bank and a Default Penalty to Support the Value of Fiat Money: Experimental Evidence, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, and Shyam Sunder

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The Value of Fiat Money with an Outside Bank: An Experimental Game, Juergen Huber, Martin Shubik, and Shyam Sunder

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A Dynamic Analysis of Human Welfare in a Warming Planet, Humberto Llavador, John E. Roemer, and Joaquim Silvestre

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A Dynamic Analysis of Human Welfare in a Warming Planet, Humberto Llavador, John E. Roemer, and Joaquim Silvestre

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The Dynamic Pivot Mechanism, Dirk Bergemann and Juuso Välimäki

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The Dynamic Pivot Mechanism, Dirk Bergemann and Juuso Välimäki

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Bootstrap for Interval Endpoints Defined by Moment Inequalities, Donald W.K. Andrews and Sukjin Han

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Affective Decision Making and the Ellsberg Paradox, Anat Bracha and Donald J. Brown

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Affective Decision Making and the Ellsberg Paradox, Anat Bracha and Donald J. Brown

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Asymptotics for LS, GLS, and Feasible GLS Statistics in an AR(1) Model with Conditional Heteroskedasticity, Donald W.K. Andrews and Patrik Guggenberger