Date of Award

January 2022

Document Type

Open Access Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Public Health (MPH)

Department

School of Public Health

First Advisor

Virginia Pitzer

Abstract

Background & Introduction: Campylobacter is one of the most common foodborne bacteria in the United States, accounting for 48 million infections each year. Campylobacter infections can arise from consuming contaminated food, especially poultry, water, or contact with infected animals. Due to its strong seasonality, cases peaking in the summer and declining in the winter, potential relationships between climate and campylobacter have been analyzed.Methods: Weekly campylobacter surveillance data was obtained from the Connecticut Department of Public Health for 2000 through 2018. Historical and projected temperature and precipitation data were also gathered from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A statistical analysis was conducted examining the relationship between weekly campylobacter cases and climate variables. A hierarchical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was also estimated using this weekly data and projected climate data to estimate the future burden of campylobacter by county in Connecticut. Results: The Poisson regression analysis showed a statistically significant relationship between weekly campylobacter cases and temperature at all lags, 0-8, but only a significant relationship with precipitation at lag 5. The optimal ARIMA model determined by lowest AIC score predicted with 87% accuracy future campylobacter infections by county in Connecticut. The model showed no increase in cases projected from 2019 through 2050. Discussion: Even with a projected increase in temperature and precipitation in the future because of climate change, campylobacter cases were not found to significantly increase. However, this analysis assumes a climate scenario in which the increase in global temperature will remain below 3° C through 2100. This analysis also did not consider probable increases in antimicrobial resistance and the recent decline in poultry consumption in the United States.

Comments

This is an Open Access Thesis.

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