Document Type
Discussion Paper
Publication Date
3-1-2021
CFDP Number
2279R
CFDP Revision Date
07-22-2021
CFDP Pages
12
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Code(s)
E00
Abstract
According to retrospective voting, a bad economy hurts the incumbent party and vice versa. According to risk-aversion voting as discussed in Pástor and Veronesi (2020), high risk aversion favors the Democrats over the Republicans and vice versa. If high risk aversion is associated with a bad economy, then risk-aversion voting implies that a bad economy favors the Democrats and vice versa. The two theories thus have different implications for the Democrats. This paper tests both theories under the assumption that high risk aversion is associated with a bad economy. The results provide no support for risk-aversion voting under this assumption.
Recommended Citation
Fair, Ray C., "Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting: A Comment on Pástor and Veronesi (2020)" (2021). Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. 2628.
https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cowles-discussion-paper-series/2628