Document Type
Discussion Paper
Publication Date
4-1-2020
CFDP Number
2229R
CFDP Revision Date
07/29/2020
CFDP Pages
29
Abstract
We analyze how to optimally engage in social distancing in order to minimize the spread of an infectious disease. We identify conditions under which any optimal policy is single-peaked, i.e., first engages in increasingly more social distancing and subsequently decreases its intensity. We show that an optimal policy might delay measures that decrease the transmission rate substantially to create herd-immunity and that engaging in social distancing sub-optimally early can increase the number of fatalities. Finally, we find that optimal social distancing can be an effective measure and can substantially reduce the death rate of a disease.
Recommended Citation
Kruse, Thomas and Strack, Philipp, "Optimal Control of an Epidemic through Social Distancing" (2020). Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. 214.
https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cowles-discussion-paper-series/214