Document Type
Discussion Paper
Publication Date
3-1-2004
CFDP Number
1454
CFDP Pages
23
Abstract
In this note we propose a simple method of measuring directional predictability and testing for the hypothesis that a given time series has no directional predictability. The test is based on the correlogram of quantile hits. We provide the distribution theory needed to conduct inference, propose some model free upper bound critical values, and apply our methods to stock index return data. The empirical results suggests some directional predictability in returns especially in mid range quantiles like 5%-10%.
Recommended Citation
Linton, Oliver B. and Whang, Yoon-Jae, "A Quantilogram Approach to Evaluating Directional Predictability" (2004). Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. 1730.
https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cowles-discussion-paper-series/1730