Date of Award

January 2026

Document Type

Open Access Thesis

Degree Name

Medical Doctor (MD)

Department

Medicine

First Advisor

Sheela Shenoi

Second Advisor

Hmwe Kyu

Abstract

Understanding the impact of specific biomedical interventions is crucial for optimizing HIV prevention strategies. In this study, we estimate of the prevalence of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) and lay out a framework for estimating preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the three high-burden sub-Saharan African countries of Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. For VMMC, we use a cohort-based simulation framework to model circumcision prevalence in all males over time, allocating VMMC count data to cohorts over time. Model outputs are compared with survey and campaign data, and two parameters, the initial background circumcision prevalence and the age distribution of VMMC procedures, are optimized to improve model fit. For PrEP, we outline a methodological approach that utilizes diverse sources of available data, including key population proportions, PrEP delivered, relative risk of HIV infection by risk group, efficacy, and adherence to PrEP, to estimate the contribution of PrEP to HIV protection. Ultimately, we plan to produce estimates for coverage of both factors for each country and for each year, from the initiation of these interventions through the present.

Comments

This is an Open Access Thesis.

Download
Open Access

This Article is Open Access

Share

COinS