Date of Award

Spring 5-18-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Public Policy (MPP)

First Advisor

Arne Westad

Subject Area(s)

International relations, Organizational behavior, Public policy, Statistics

Abstract

This thesis evaluates whether the Russo Ukrainian war represents a revolution in military affairs (RMA) by testing Stephen Biddle’s "modern system" theory of battlefield outcomes against recent combat operations. Applying Biddle’s formal model to the 2023 Ukrainian offensive in Zaporizhia, the thesis finds that the offensive's failure conforms closely to Biddle’s causal logic, with force employment variables drawn from 20th century combat sufficient to account for the outcome. Biddle's model in military power argues that force employment has explained victory and defeat since World War I, rather than technology or numerical preponderance alone. Many commentators claim that proliferation of small unmanned aerial systems and precision firepower has created defensive dominance, fundamentally altering modern warfare. This research applies the model to predict outcomes based on force ratios, technological balance, and employment variables, then compares predictions against observed casualties and territorial gains. A sensitivity analysis confirms the predicted outcome is robust to plausible variation in inputs. The findings suggest evolutionary rather than revolutionary change, with implications for military modernization efforts, operational planning, and international relations theory regarding offense-defense dynamics and their systemic effects on state behavior.

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