Date of Award

Spring 5-18-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Public Policy (MPP)

First Advisor

Amit Khandelwal

Subject Area(s)

Economics, Management, Statistics

Abstract

This research examines whether the auto-specific provisions introduced under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) have had a measurable regionalizing effect on North American export flows. The USMCA's auto-specific provisions, established in the rules of origin requirements (ROOs), increase regional value content requirements (RVC) while imposing new requirements for labor value content (LVC), steel and aluminum sourcing, and core parts. This research assesses whether these provisions are associated with a distinctive pattern of intra-regional export concentration not present in other sectors.

The study employs a descriptive comparative framework using data from UN Comtrade, spanning 1990 to 2024, to analyze export flows for autos, auto parts, and white goods. White goods, which are not subject to the auto industry's sector-specific ROO requirements, serve as a counterfactual. The data reveal a clear divergence. Intra-North American automotive exports grew from approximately $22.3 billion in 1990 to $365.5 billion in 2024, a roughly 16-fold increase, while North American automotive exports to the rest of the world grew more modestly. The white goods sector exhibited the opposite pattern, with extra-regional exports growing faster than intra-regional exports. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that USMCA's automotive ROO provisions have deepened regional production integration beyond what demand-side forces alone would predict. Because this research is descriptive, causation cannot be established.

Download
Open Access

This Article is Open Access

Share

COinS