The Persistence of Failing Authoritarian Regimes. Ordinary People in the 21st century Venezuela
Date of Award
Spring 2023
Document Type
Dissertation
Degree Name
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Department
Political Science
First Advisor
Wood, Elisabeth
Abstract
When facing a social, economic, and political crisis, why do authoritarian regimes persist? Using the case of 21st century Venezuela, this dissertation analyzes the puzzle of authoritarian regime persistence. After Hugo Chávez’s democratic victory in 1998, Venezuela became a paradigmatic example of a gradual democratic backslide. In its twenty-five years of history, el Chavismo has survived multiple attacks and obstacles. Its founding leader died; in the last years, Venezuela’s poverty level reached 96%, more than 25% of its population has left the country and, from 2019 to 2022, a coalition of more than fifty countries recognized a political opponent as the acting president. Nevertheless, the Chavista regime, now led by Nicolás Maduro, persists. Why? In this dissertation, I focus on ordinary people’s beliefs and actions to advance our understanding of this question. Using qualitative methods (semi-structured interviews, oral histories, and participant observation) complemented with the analysis of political manifestos, quantitative censuses, electoral data, and opinion polls, I show how ordinary Venezuelans understand their country’s past and present. I analyze their narratives and what meanings they assign to political events. Based on this evidence, I argue that the initial democratic overthrow of a profoundly discredited political class by Chávez´s political movement set the basis for the creation of deep social connections between the new elite and a significant part of “the people” (a coalition that would be later called el Chavismo). The victory was possible in large part due to Chávez´s charisma and political narrative that brought to the front and center of the national discussion the figures of ordinary Venezuelans and their grievances. While the clientelist wave that characterized the first years of the Chávez period stabilized the new regime, there was a deeper emotional connection being formed. The idea that el Chavismo was giving back “dignity” to the poor was an important piece of the emotional connection. Chavistas, those who belong to el Chavismo, ended up not only supporting a politician, but sharing a new identity that transcended electoral politics. Those that were not Chavistas, gradually became the enemy, setting the basis for an unprecedented degree of polarization. In the last decade, both the intensity of the group identity and the polarization levels have subsided: this is an example of how some forces (e.g.: polarization) might unleash a phenomenon (the consolidation of the Chavista regime) that persists even after the former disappeared. I hypothesize that the new relationship between most ordinary Venezuelans and the incoming government, in particular with Chávez, was a fundamental aspect for the consolidation of el Chavismo and, more importantly, it explains why, in spite of the multi-faceted crisis, collective action by ordinary people remains very difficult in Venezuela. While most of the literature on “dignity” focuses on it as a motive for collective action, the contribution here is the inverse argument: an analysis of the conditions under which dignity is one reason collective action does not occur. By focusing on this moral aspect of politics, I can study different angles of the seed that produced el Chavismo: the deep inequalities of Venezuelan society. The GINI coefficient is one measure of (economic) inequality, but here I focus on social, cultural, racial and gender inequalities as well. It is only by broadening the scope of analysis that one can understand how, in spite of economic hardship, a political regime may keep some support. I strengthen the analysis of the microfoundations of regime dynamics by analyzing how organizations working at the meso-level end up revitalizing ordinary people’s sense of agency and, by doing so, transforming the social lives in some communities. As organized politics loses legitimacy, I also show how work in the communities ends up forming new elites. I then explain how the political opposition is still a fundamental actor in el Chavismo’s trajectory and to what extent arguments to explain persistence based on repression -constantly exerted by the government- are valid in this case. Finally, I illustrate how the departure of more than seven million of Venezuelans shapes the political situation in the country. While one of the dissertation’s main claims is that a focus on ordinary people is necessary to understand regime level dynamics, I show how different levels of analyses enrich our overall understanding of why failing authoritarian regimes might persist. These insights help explain why, in spite of multiple crises, el Chavismo has persisted for more than twenty years and provide a basis to understand other authoritarian or hybrid regimes.
Recommended Citation
Fajardo, Alejandro, "The Persistence of Failing Authoritarian Regimes. Ordinary People in the 21st century Venezuela" (2023). Yale Graduate School of Arts and Sciences Dissertations. 993.
https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/gsas_dissertations/993
