Document Type
Discussion Paper
Publication Date
1-1-2006
CFDP Number
1546
CFDP Pages
16
Abstract
This note introduces a simple first-difference-based approach to estimation and inference for the AR(1) model. The estimates have virtually no finite sample bias, are not sensitive to initial conditions, and the approach has the unusual advantage that a Gaussian central limit theory applies and is continuous as the autoregressive coefficient passes through unity with a uniform / n rate of convergence. En route, a useful CLT for sample covariances of linear processes is given, following Phillips and Solo (1992). The approach also has useful extensions to dynamic panels.
Recommended Citation
Phillips, Peter C.B. and Han, Chirok, "Gaussian Inference in AR(1) Time Series with or without a Unit Root" (2006). Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. 1834.
https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cowles-discussion-paper-series/1834