Date of Award

January 2025

Document Type

Open Access Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Public Health (MPH)

Department

School of Public Health

First Advisor

Virginia Pitzer

Abstract

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a mosquito-borne viral disease that poses a significant public health threat across Asia, including China. Climate change has been increasingly recognized as a key driver of JE transmission dynamics, influencing mosquito vector distribution and virus proliferation. This study aimed to assess how climatic variables affect the ecological suitability for Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) transmission, using species distribution modeling with MaxEnt.

Using climate data from WorldClim and JE incidence data from published sources, we applied the MaxEnt model to identify the key environmental predictors of JE transmission and project future risk areas under changing climatic conditions. The results indicate that precipitation in the driest month (Bio14), annual precipitation (Bio12), and annual mean temperature (Bio01) are the most influential factors shaping JE transmission patterns.

Future projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for 2021–2040 suggest a northward expansion of JE-suitable habitats, with high-risk areas increasing in central and eastern China under higher-emission scenarios. These projected scenarios indicate a substantial rise in JE suitability across previously low-risk regions, emphasizing the role of climate change in reshaping disease transmission patterns.

Climate-adaptive public health interventions, including enhanced vector surveillance, targeted vaccination programs, and climate-resilient disease prevention strategies are urgently needed. By integrating climate modeling into JE risk assessments, this study provides valuable insights for mitigating the future burden of JE in China.

Comments

This is an Open Access Thesis.

Download
Open Access

This Article is Open Access

Share

COinS