Document Type
Discussion Paper
Publication Date
12-1-2019
CFDP Number
2216
CFDP Pages
56
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Code(s)
C45, D01, D90
Abstract
Beliefs are intuitive if they rely on associative memory, which can be described as a network of associations between events. A belief-theoretic characterization of the model is provided, its uniqueness properties are established, and the intersection with the Bayesian model is characterized. The formation of intuitive beliefs is modelled after machine learning, whereby the network is shaped by past experience via minimization of the difference from an objective probability distribution. The model is shown to accommodate correlation misperception, the conjunction fallacy, base-rate neglect/conservatism, etc.
Recommended Citation
Noor, Jawwad, "Intuitive Beliefs" (2019). Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. 31.
https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cowles-discussion-paper-series/31