Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Code(s)
According to retrospective voting a bad economy hurts the incumbent party and vice versa. According to risk-aversion voting a bad economy favors the Democrats over the Republicans and vice versa. This paper provides a test of both theories and rejects risk-aversion voting.
Fair, Ray C., "Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting" (2021). Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. 2604.