Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi‐Model Comparison
The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the ﬁrst comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO 2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key ﬁnding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.
Gillingham, Kenneth; Nordhaus, William D.; Anthoff, David; Blanford, Geoffrey; Bosetti, Valentina; Christensen, Peter; and McJeon, Haewon, "Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi‐Model Comparison" (2015). Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. 2463.