Title

Pitfalls and Possibilities in Predictive Regression

Document Type

Discussion Paper

Publication Date

6-1-2015

CFDP Number

2003

CFDP Pages

42

Abstract

Financial theory and econometric methodology both struggle in formulating models that are logically sound in reconciling short run martingale behaviour for financial assets with predictable long run behavior, leaving much of the research to be empirically driven. The present paper overviews recent contributions to this subject, focussing on the main pitfalls in conducting predictive regression and on some of the possibilities offered by modern econometric methods. The latter options include indirect inference and techniques of endogenous instrumentation that use convenient temporal transforms of persistent regressors. Some additional suggestions are made for bias elimination, quantile crossing amelioration, and control of predictive model misspecification.

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