Title

How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?

Authors

Ray C. Fair

Document Type

Discussion Paper

Publication Date

3-1-2014

CFDP Number

1943

CFDP Pages

24

Abstract

An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

This document is currently not available here.

Share

COinS