Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) Code(s)
Q5, Q54, C8
The present study has two objectives. The ﬁrst is a review of studies that estimate the global economic impacts of climate change using a systematic research synthesis (SRS). In this review, we attempt to replicate the impact estimates provided by Tol (2009, 2014) and ﬁnd a large number of errors and estimates that could not be replicated. The study provides revised estimates for a total of 36 usable estimates from 27 studies. A second part of the study performs a statistical analysis. While the diﬀerent speciﬁcations provide alternative estimates of the damage function, there were no large discrepancies among speciﬁcations. The preferred regression is the median, quadratic, weighted regression. The data here omit several important potential damages, which we estimate to add 25% to the quantiﬁed damages. With this addition, the estimated impact is -2.04 (+ 2.21) % of income at 3 °C warming and -8.06 (+ 2.43) % of income at 6 °C warming. We also considered the likelihood of thresholds or sharp convexities in the damage function and found no evidence from the damage estimates of a sharp discontinuity or high convexity.
Nordhaus, William D. and Moffat, Andrew, "A Survey of Global Impacts of Climate Change: Replication, Survey Methods, and a Statistical Analysis" (2017). Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. 187.