Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence
This paper presents evidence on attitude changes among investors in the US stock market. Two basic attitudes are explored: bubble expectations and investor conﬁdence. Semiannual time-series indicators of these attitudes are presented for US stock market institutional investors based on questionnaire survey results 1989–1998, from surveys that I have derived in collaboration with Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui. Five diﬀerent time-series indicators whether there is among investors an expectation of a speculative bubble, an unstable situation with expectations for increase in the short run only, are produced. Four diﬀerent time-series indicators whether there is an expectation of a negative speculative bubble are presented. Four diﬀerent time-series indicators of investor conﬁdence, that nothing can go wrong, are produced. Time-series variation for these indicators is signiﬁcant, and cross correlations are generally positive. A bubble expectations index, a negative-bubble expectations index, and an investor conﬁdence index are derived from these indicators. Behavior of the indicators and indexes through time is examined, and the indexes are compared with other economic variables. A notable ﬁnding is a degree of high-frequency fluctuation, semester to semester, in the indexes.
Shiller, Robert J., "Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence" (1999). Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers. 1460.